[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 September 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0457UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.1    1926UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 250/200

GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C3.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Sep             10 Sep             11 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   240/189            230/180            220/170
COMMENT: M class flare activity remains expected, with possibility 
of isolated X class event from regions in north-west and and 
in particular far south-east quadrants. Region in south-east 
has been steadily growing, while region in north-west is beginning 
to decay as it approaches the west limb. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1101 1212
      Darwin               4   2211 1122
      Townsville           2   0101 1113
      Learmonth            3   2111 0211
      Canberra             3   1101 1211
      Hobart               4   2201 1212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 SEP : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   1011 3313     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active 
10 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
08 Sep   154

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40% during local day,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35% during local day,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Sep   145    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
10 Sep   145    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
11 Sep   145    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 7 September 
and is current for interval 7-9 September (SWFs) . Higher than
normal MUFs expected.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060