[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 September 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F    1538UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 226/176

GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C5.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Sep             09 Sep             10 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            230/180            230/180

COMMENT: M class flare activity remains expected, with possibility 
of isolated X class event from regions in north-west and and 
far south-east quadrants. Trend in ACE EPAM data did not continue. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1100 0012
      Darwin               2   1100 1123
      Townsville           1   1110 0011
      Learmonth            0   1100 0002
      Canberra             1   1200 0012
      Hobart               0   0100 0012
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 SEP : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              8   2022 3332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Sep    16    active 
09 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active 
10 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active periods expected on 8-9 Sep based on 27 day recurrence. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected at mid to high latitudes 
due to geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
07 Sep   146

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 35% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 55% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 65% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Sep   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
09 Sep   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
10 Sep   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 7 September 
and is current for interval 7-9 September (SWFs) . Enhanced MUFs 
again expected today. Fadeouts can be expected on daylight HF 
circuits. Southern region Aus/NZ may expereience a mild degradation 
in HF conditions during local night hours 8-9 Sep. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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