[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 September 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 7 09:21:17 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: Low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 222/172
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C3.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 225/175 230/180 230/180
COMMENT: M class flare activity expected, with possibility of
isolated X class event from regions in north-west and and far
south-east quadrants. Elevated background solar xray flux expected
today. Solar wind data is currently at nominal levels, however
ACE EPAM 47-65KeV proton data channel shows an increasing trend
(possible precursor to mild geomagnetic activity), but is currently
well below alert levels. A weak radio noise storm on the Culgoora
Spectrograph appears to be intensifying this morning.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 2112 1012
Darwin 3 2112 1013
Townsville 2 2111 0013
Learmonth 3 2112 1012
Canberra 3 1122 1012
Hobart 3 1222 1002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 SEP :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10 3122 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Sep 16 active
09 Sep 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Active periods expected on 8-9 Sep based on 27 day recurrence.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected 8-9Sep at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 142
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 140 about 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Sep 140 about 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Sep 140 about 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs again expected today. Fadeouts can be
expected on daylight HF circuits. Southern region Aus/NZ may
experience a mild degradation in HF conditions during local
night hours 8-9 Sep.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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