[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 September 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M6.0    1432UT  probable   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.3    1910UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M2.2    2234UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 218/168

GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Sep             07 Sep             08 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            215/165            215/165

COMMENT: M6 flare was impulsive and from region 9601 just west 
of the solar central meridian. A mass ejection was observed late 
in the UT day, probably from departing region 9591, and is not 
considered geoeffective due to extreme westward location and 
direction. Further flare activity expected from 9601 and 9606 
in the southeast. Another region of interest appears to be rotating 
round the south-east limb. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1111 2221
      Darwin               6   2221 2222
      Townsville           1   0000 1212
      Learmonth            7   2222 -221
      Canberra             5   2120 2221
      Hobart               3   1110 1221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 SEP : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             20   3443 4433     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Sep    16    active 
COMMENT: Active periods expected on 8 Sep based on 27 day recurrence. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
05 Sep   141

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Sep   130    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
07 Sep   130    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
08 Sep   130    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 4 September 
and is current for interval 4-6 September (SWFs) . Enhanced MUFs 
may be experienced today. Fadeouts can be expected on daylight 
HF circuits. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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