[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 September 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 245/195

GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Sep             12 Sep             13 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   245/195            245/195            235/185
COMMENT: After reviewing LASCO imagery it apapears that no mass 
ejection was associated with the M9 flare. Moderate to high activity 
expected. Large region in south-east quadrant continues to grow. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   2200 0012
      Darwin               2   2210 0002
      Townsville           1   1100 0012
      Learmonth            2   2200 0001
      Canberra             2   2200 0001
      Hobart               3   2200 102-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 SEP : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2112 2332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active 
13 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Increased geomagnetic activity from M9 now not expected. 
Isolated active periods possible on 12 Sep. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
10 Sep   142

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Sep   145    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
12 Sep   145    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
13 Sep   145    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 9 September 
and is current for interval 10-12 September (SWFs) . Enhanced 
MUFs again expected today. Fadeouts can be expected on daylight 
HF circuits. Degarded conditions no longer expected on 12-13 
Sep due to lack of CME with M9 event. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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