[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:**RED**  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/SN    1435UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 237/187

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Oct             28 Oct             29 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            225/175            220/170


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 0122
      Darwin               5   -211 013-
      Learmonth            3   2111 0122
      Canberra             2   1110 0022
      Hobart               3   1121 0022
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 OCT : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            60   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              92   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   0022 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Oct    25    Quiet to unsettled with storm levels expected 
                late in the UT day. 
28 Oct    50    Storm levels 
29 Oct    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: A CME associated with the X1-flare observed at 1504UT 
on 25 October is expected to impact the Earth late in the UT 
day of 27 October. Storm levels are expected to follow. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor   
28 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor     
29 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: HF conditions should remain normal for most of the UT 
day of 27 October with degraded conditions expected for 28 October 
following the impact of an anticipated CME due late on 27 October. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
26 Oct   175

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Mostly normal to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Oct   140    Mostly near predicted monthly values with depressed 
                conditions possible late in the UT day. 
28 Oct    70    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
29 Oct   110    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions should remain normal for most of the UT 
day of 27 October with degraded conditions expected for 28 October 
following the impact of an anticipated CME due late on 27 October. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 417 km/sec  Density:    9.2 p/cc  Temp:    93300 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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