[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 28 10:26:11 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:**RED** ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 247/197
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 250/200 245/195 245/195
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 2311 2112
Darwin 4 2211 2013
Learmonth 3 2201 2002
Canberra 6 2301 3112
Hobart 5 2311 2102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 OCT :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1022 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 50 Storm levels
29 Oct 16 Unsettled to active
30 Oct 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 27 October
and is current for interval 27-28 October. The CME associated
with the X1-flare observed on 25 October is expected to impact
the Earth early in the UT day of 28 October. Storm levels are
expected to follow.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
29 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions are expected for 28 October following
the impact of an anticipated CME due early on 28 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct 179
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Mostly normal to enhanced at all stations.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct 90 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
29 Oct 120 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 150 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on 27 October
and is current for interval 27-28 October. Degraded conditions
are expected for 28 October following the impact of an anticipated
CME due early on 28 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 58100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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