[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:GREEN   ION:GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/3B    1502UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 239/188

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Oct             27 Oct             28 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            225/175            220/170


ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
25/0320UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0801UT on 
25 Oct. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 25 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   1143 1123
      Darwin               9   1143 2123
      Learmonth            7   1033 1222
      Canberra            10   3143 1123
      Hobart               9   0-43 1123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 OCT : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            5   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1001 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Oct    15    Quiet to unsettled 
27 Oct    25    Quiet to unsettled with storm levels expected 
                late in the UT day. 
28 Oct    50    Storm levels 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 40 was issued on 23 October 
and is current for interval 24-26 October. A CME impacted the 
Earth at 0848UT and produced a sudden impulse in the geomagnetic 
field of approximately 50nT across the Australian region. Geomagnetic 
activity was lower than expected due to the IMF remaining northward 
during the passage of the CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions 
are expected for today and most of the UT day for 27 Oct. Another 
CME associated with the X1-flare observed at 1504UT on 25 October 
is expected to impact the Earth late in the UT day of 27 October. 
Storm levels are expected to follow. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
27 Oct      Normal         Normal-poor    Normal-poor   
28 Oct      Normal-fair    Poor-fair      Poor          
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity following the impact of a recent 
CME was not as siginificant as expected and HF conditions remained 
mostly normal. HF conditions should remain mostly normal for 
26-27 October with degraded conditions expected for 28 October 
following the impact of another anticipated CME. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
25 Oct   190

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Mostly normal to enhanced.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Oct   150    near predicted monthly values 
27 Oct   140    Mostly near predicted monthly values with depressed 
                conditions possible late in the UT day. 
28 Oct    70    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on 23 October 
and is current for interval 24-26 October. Geomagnetic activity 
following the impact of a recent CME was not as siginificant 
as expected and HF conditions remained mostly normal. HF conditions 
should remain mostly normal for 26-27 October with degraded conditions 
expected for 28 October following the impact of another anticipated 
CME. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 400 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    12800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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