[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:**RED**   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 239/188

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Oct             26 Oct             27 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   225/175            220/170            215/165


ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
24/2025UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1210 0002
      Darwin               2   1220 0003
      Learmonth            1   1200 0002
      Canberra             2   2210 0002
      Hobart               1   1200 0001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 OCT : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   4532 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Oct    40    Minor storm 
26 Oct    20    active 
27 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 40 was issued on 23 October 
and is current for interval 24-26 October. Disturbed conditions 
expected due to recent CME activity anticipated to impact the 
Earth early on 25 October. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : Began at 2025UT 22/10, Ended at 0225UT 23/10
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Fair           Fair-Poor      Poor
26 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected during 25-26 October following 
the expected impact of a CME on 25 October. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
24 Oct   180

Observed Australian Regional MUFs:
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced greater than 15%.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Oct    70    near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30% 
26 Oct   100    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
27 Oct   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on 23 October 
and is current for interval 23-25 October (SWFs) . Degraded conditions 
expected during 25-26 October following the expected impact of 
a CME on 25 October. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 495 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    34400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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