[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M6/1B    0223UT  confirmed  lower  E. Asia/Aust.
 M1/SN    0023UT  confirmed  lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 226/176

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Oct             25 Oct             26 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate to high   Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Probable           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   225/175            220/170            220/170

COMMENT: Flares and shortwave fadeouts expected due to active 
solar region. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 23 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   4332 2225
      Darwin              12   4332 2225
      Learmonth           13   5321 2225
      Canberra            12   4332 2224
      Hobart              13   4431 3114
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 OCT : 
      Darwin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           16   (Quiet)
      Canberra            86   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             160   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        33
           Planetary             66   6546 5765     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Oct    42    Minor storm 
25 Oct    41    Minor storm 
26 Oct    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 40 was issued on 23 October 
and is current for interval 24-26 October. Strongly disturbed 
geomagnetic conditions expected during the forecast period. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
PCA Event : Began at 2025UT 22/10, Ended at 0225UT 23/10
 
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Fair           Fair-Poor      Fair-Poor
25 Oct      Fair           Fair-Poor      Fair-Poor
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
23 Oct   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Oct   100    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
25 Oct    55    Depressed 30% 
26 Oct    55    Depressed 30% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on 23 October 
and is current for interval 23-25 October (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 562 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:    72600 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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