[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M3/1F    2325UT  confirmed  lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 245/195

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Oct             22 Oct             23 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   245/195            240/189            235/185

COMMENT: Flares and shortwave fadeouts expected due to active 
solar region. Another full halo CME observed on 20 October. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   1233 3233
      Darwin               8   1232 2233
      Learmonth            7   1232 2223
      Canberra            11   1233 3233
      Hobart              11   1233 3233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 OCT : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         NA
           Planetary              NA                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   0122 3323     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Oct    25    Unsettled increasing to active with the possiblity 
                of minor storm conditions. 
22 Oct    35    Active to Minor storm 
23 Oct    28    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 39 was issued on 19 October 
and is current for interval 21-24 October. Disturbed conditions 
expected due to the likely transit of multiple CME's. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
22 Oct      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor     
23 Oct      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
20 Oct   155

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Oct   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
22 Oct    95    Depressed 15 to 20% 
23 Oct    70    Depressed 20 to 30% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 59 was issued on 19 October 
and is current for interval 20-22 October (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 325 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:    37600 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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