[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/2B    0105UT  probable   all    West Pacific
 X1/2B    1630UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic
 M5/1B    0943UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 248/198

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Oct             21 Oct             22 Oct
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   250/200            250/200            245/195

COMMENT: Flares and shortwave fadeouts expected due to active 
solar region. Full halo CME's observed on 19 October associated 
with the X class flares. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   4222 3323
      Darwin              13   4322 3323
      Learmonth           10   3222 3323
      Canberra            11   4221 3323
      Hobart               9   3221 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 OCT : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   0001 2321     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Oct    14    Unsettled to Active 
21 Oct    26    active 
22 Oct    37    Active to Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 39 was issued on 19 October 
and is current for interval 21-24 October. Disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions expected during the forecast period. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
22 Oct      Fair           Fair-Poor      Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
19 Oct   175

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Oct   160    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
21 Oct   120    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Oct    70    Depressed 15% after local dawn. 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 58 was issued on 19 October 
and is current for interval 22-23 October. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 305 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    28700 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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