[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 229/179

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Oct             20 Oct             21 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   235/185            240/189            245/195
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   2100 1111
      Darwin               2   2100 1112
      Learmonth            3   20-- ----
      Canberra             1   1000 1111
      Hobart               2   1100 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 OCT : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2111 2221     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Oct     6    Quiet 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
18 Oct   183

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Oct   160    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
20 Oct   160    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
21 Oct   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 318 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    28100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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