[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1116UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 217/167

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Oct             19 Oct             20 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            220/170            225/175
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1101 0013
      Darwin               1   1101 0013
      Learmonth            0   1001 0003
      Canberra             1   1101 0013
      Hobart               3   2111 1012
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 OCT : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   3222 3321     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Oct     5    Quiet 
19 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
17 Oct   172

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Oct   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
19 Oct   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
20 Oct   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    26500 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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