[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0518UT  confirmed  lower  E. Asia/Aust.
 M2/2N    1136UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 224/174

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Oct             23 Oct             24 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   225/175            225/175            215/165


ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
21/0525UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 1613UT on 21 
Oct. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet to Severe Storm Levels 

Estimated Indices 21 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      27   2211 3666
      Darwin              26   2211 2667
      Learmonth           26   2211 2666
      Canberra            23   2211 3566
      Hobart              37   2222 3676
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 OCT : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   1324 3322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Oct    45    Minor storm 
23 Oct    40    Minor storm 
24 Oct    30    Active to Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 39 was issued on 19 October 
and is current for interval 21-24 October. Strongly disturbed 
geomagnetic conditions expected during the forecast period. 
A moderate (52nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter 
data at 1648UT on 21 Oct. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal-fair    Fair-poor      Poor          
23 Oct      Normal-fair    Fair-poor      Poor          
24 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected during the forecast period 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
21 Oct   144

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 55% during local night.
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
     Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Oct    40    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
23 Oct    60    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
24 Oct    70    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 59 was issued on 19 October 
and is current for interval 20-22 October (SWFs) . 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    90800 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060