[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 179/132

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Oct             14 Oct             15 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            190/143            195/147

COMMENT: M class flares possible from regions near eastern limb 
of disk. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 12 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      23   4443 5322
      Darwin              27   4--- ----
      Townsville          12   3322 4222
      Learmonth           26   -543 5322
      Canberra            30   --43 5---
      Hobart              28   5-43 542-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 OCT : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             17   2321 3554     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
14 Oct    11    Unsettled 
15 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 9 October and 
is current for interval 11-13 October. Geomagnetic storm activity 
observed for first two K index periods of UT day then activity 
declined. Field is expected to decline in activity over coming 
days.Another possible weak (29nT) impulse was observed in the 
IPS magnetomter data at 0240UT on 12 Oct. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions expected initially today, 
then improving. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
12 Oct   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Oct   100    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values (Southern Aus/NZ)
13 Oct   130    near to 15% above normal (Northern Aus)
14 Oct   140    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
15 Oct   140    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 10 October 
and is current for interval 12-13 October. 15% depressed conditions 
expected for southern region Australia and New Zealand again 
this morning. Northern region MUFs expected to be near to above 
normal. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    43800 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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