[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 175/129

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Oct             13 Oct             14 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            170/124

COMMENT: A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 1619UT on 11 
Oct. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field fluctuated southward on shock arrival, then turned strongly 
northward, reducing geoeffectiveness. Solar wind speed currently 
moderately elevated at around 550km/sec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 11 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2211 2243
      Darwin               5   2211 2---
      Townsville           8   1111 2343
      Learmonth           11   -212 3-43
      Canberra             5   2121 2---
      Hobart               7   2221 31--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 OCT : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   1322 3221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Oct    18    Active 
13 Oct    13    Active declining to unsettled
14 Oct    13    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 9 October and 
is current for interval 11-13 October. A weak (40nT) impulse was 
observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1701UT on 11 Oct. 
Geomagnetic activity following impulse is expected to rapidly 
decline today due to strongly northward IMF. There may be some 
further isolated periods of activity around local midnight tonight. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Oct      Fair           Fair-Normal    Poor-Fair
13 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded and depressed conditions are expected initially
on 12 Oct then improving.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
11 Oct   145

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Depressed 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the 00-18UT,
      depressed 30% 18-23UT.
      Occasional absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Oct   100    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
13 Oct   120    near predicted monthly values 
14 Oct   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 11 October 
and is current for interval 12 October only. Depressed and degraded 
conditions expected briefly after dawn this morning then improving 
due to earlier than expected arrival of mass ejection overnight. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 399 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    77800 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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