[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 180/133

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Oct             15 Oct             16 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            190/143            195/147




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3233 2212
      Darwin              15   3--- ----
      Learmonth            8   3132 2211
      Canberra             8   2233 2112
      Hobart               -   ---- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 OCT : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             27   5634 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Oct    12    Unsettled 
15 Oct     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
13 Oct   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Oct   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
15 Oct   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
16 Oct   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 488 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:   154000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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