[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/--    0525UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 180/133

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Oct             08 Oct             09 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            175/129

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2232 2110
      Darwin               7   2332 101-
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth            8   2222 23--
      Canberra             7   2232 2020
      Hobart               7   2233 201-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 OCT : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              9   1113 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Oct     7    Quiet 
08 Oct     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Oct    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : Began at 0945UT 01/10, Ended at 0330UT 05/10
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
06 Oct   153

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Oct   140    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
08 Oct   120    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Oct   145    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 399 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    27300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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