[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 173/127

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Oct             09 Oct             10 Oct
Activity     Low                Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            175/129

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be low. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
07/0550UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1110 1101
      Darwin               3   1110 12--
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth            0   1010 0001
      Canberra             1   1110 100-
      Hobart               1   1010 100-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 OCT : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2222 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Oct     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
10 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Magnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation is expected to be normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
07 Oct   164

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Oct   140    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
09 Oct   150    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
10 Oct   139    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    45600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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