[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 177/131

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Oct             07 Oct             08 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            170/124            170/124

COMMENT: 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2122 1233
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth            7   2112 1333
      Canberra             7   1222 123-
      Hobart               5   2122 12--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 OCT : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             19   4154 3432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Oct     7    Quiet 
08 Oct     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : Began at 0945UT 01/10, Ended at 0330UT 05/10
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
05 Oct   149

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Oct   130    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
07 Oct   120    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Oct   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 485 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    81800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060