[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 27 10:26:34 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 175/129
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 185/138
COMMENT: Moderate solar activity expected due to a region on
disk in the north-east quadrant showing increased flare potential
(increase in area/magnetic complexity), and due to the possibility
of returning solar regions in the south-east and north-east limb
of the Sun.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9687 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 27 Nov. Also, previously M-flare(s)
preducing region 9692 is also due for return to the north-east
limb around this day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 2232 1112
Darwin 4 2121 112-
Learmonth 7 2133 003-
Canberra 4 1131 1012
Hobart 5 2231 0101
Casey(Ant) 13 3343 3113
Davis(Ant) 13 3343 3112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 NOV :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3223 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Nov 14 Unsettled to Active
29 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Recurrence patterns suggest a very weak activity on
28 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 11 2001 0010UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Normal Poor-fair
28 Nov Normal Normal Fair
29 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions starting to improve, as
proton event declines, and flux is currently just above event
threshold. Mild degradation in HF comss quailty expected around
28 Nov at high latitudes only.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov 152
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced 15%. Increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov 165 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Nov 160 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Nov 110 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 75 was issued on 23 November
and is current for interval 24-27 November. MUFs expected to
be near to 15% above normal. Midly depressed conditions possible
after local dawn 29 Nov, due to weak recurrent geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.7E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B9.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 644 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 50300 K Bz: 9 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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