[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/--    0951UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 170/124

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Nov             27 Nov             28 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            175/129
COMMENT: X1 event was impulsive and no optical correlation was 
possible. Most likely from region 9704 now on west limb. Impulsive 
xray profile, lack of radio signatures, and limb location imply 
X1 will not be geoeffective. 
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9687 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 27 Nov. Also, previously M-flare(s) 
preducing region 9692 is also due for return around this day. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 25 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   3444 3213
      Darwin              12   3343 2214
      Learmonth           15   3335 2213
      Canberra            15   3444 2203
      Hobart              16   3444 2213
      Casey(Ant)          28   -555 3224
      Davis(Ant)          21   4444 4223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 NOV : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        76
           Planetary            108   3597 8734     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Nov    13    Unsettled to Active 
27 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Nov    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT:A weak (20nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 0535UT on 25 Nov. Origin of weak impulse unknown. Generally 
declining activity. Recurrence patterns suggest a very weak activity 
on 28 Nov. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Fair           Poor-fair      Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 11 2001 0010UT and 
	    is in progress (declining).
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)-Fair
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions starting to improve, though 
still affected by increased absorption. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
25 Nov    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      10-15% depressed to near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Nov   125    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
27 Nov   135    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Nov   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 75 was issued on 23 November 
and is current for interval 24-27 November. Strongly degraded/depressed 
HF conditions observed yesterday. Midly depressed conditions 
expected after local dawn then gradually improving. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+09
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.8E+08
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B9.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:    NA p/cc  Temp:   NA K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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