[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.4    2121UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 190/143

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Nov             29 Nov             30 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            205/156            210/161
COMMENT: Moderate solar activity expected due to a region on 
disk in the north-east quadrant showing increased flare potential 
(increase in area/magnetic complexity), and a new solar region 
rotating around the east limb of the Sun. Solar activity may 
increase in coming days. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2212 1113
      Darwin               2   1111 0113
      Learmonth            7   -22- ----
      Canberra             2   1111 0112
      Hobart               2   1111 0112
      Casey(Ant)           8   -3-3 2113
      Davis(Ant)           8   3222 1233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 NOV : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2131 1211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Nov    14    Unsettled to Active 
29 Nov     6    Quiet 
30 Nov     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Recurrence patterns suggest a very weak activity on 28 Nov. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : Began at 0010UT 23/11, Ended at 1435UT 27/11
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions much improved. Mild degradation 
in HF conditions expected 28 Nov. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
27 Nov   185

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Ehanced by 15%.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Nov   175    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
29 Nov   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
30 Nov   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs expected to be 15-20% above normal. Midly degraded 
conditions possible after local dawn 29 Nov, southern region 
Aus/NZ, due to weak recurrent geomagnetic activity. Mild depression 
below monthly predicted values may not eventuate as MUFs appear 
to be returning to enhanced levels. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 566 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    85100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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