[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov:  Low.

Flares: None.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 177/131

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Nov             25 Nov             26 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            170/124            170/124
COMMENT: Solar region 9704 has been relatively quiet past 24 
hours. Yesterdays large flare was measured as a X1 on GOES10 
and an M9.9 on GOES 8 xray solar fluxes. Proton event remains 
in progress. The X1(M9.9) flare has been confirmed as halo CME 
associated, and was in a good geoeffective position when the 
flare occured. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field fluctuated southward 5nT for much of the day. 
ACE solar wind detector saturated due to proton event. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
23/1925UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3333 3333
      Darwin              10   3222 3323
      Learmonth           11   3322 3323
      Canberra            11   3233 2323
      Hobart              12   3333 2323
      Casey(Ant)          19   4--4 3333
      Davis(Ant)          27   4--- -443
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 NOV : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   1223 2232     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Nov    18    active 
25 Nov    80    Storm levels 
26 Nov    30    Active to Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 23 November 
and is current for interval 24-26 November. A weak to moderate 
disturbance is initially expected on 24 Nov, then increasing 
to major storm levels on 25-26 Nov due to M3.8 and X1 events. The 
is a good chance for severe storm levels from second half of 25 Nov 
to first half of 26 Nov. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 11 2001 0010UT and is in 
	    progress.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Poor(PCA)
25 Nov      Poor           Poor           Poor
26 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions remain useless due to PCA. 
Proton event expected to gradually decline by end of today. However, 
continued degraded conditions expected due to commencment of 
geomagnetic activity from recent CMEs. Strongly degraded conditions 
expected 25-26 Nov. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
23 Nov   119

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption observed for much of the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Nov    90    about 15% below predicted monthly values 
25 Nov    70    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
26 Nov    50    30 to 40% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 75 was issued on 23 November 
and is current for interval 24-27 November. MUFs were unexpectedly 
mildly depressed yesterday, after the recent run of enhanced 
conditions. Depressions of 20% have been observed after local 
dawn this morning, at some southern region sites. Strongly 
degraded/depressed HF conditions expected 25-26 Nov. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 427 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   140000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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