[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 November 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 23 11:07:12 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1708UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M4.1 2036UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
X1.0 2332UT Confirmed all West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 190/143
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: M3.8 flare was from solar region 9698 located S24W68
on the solar disk. Ground based radio data impiles a mass ejection
has occured. The flare was associated with multiple type II radio
sweeps, shock speeds of 900 and 1100km/sec, and a proton enhancement
around 22UT just below event threshold. The far westward location
of this event may reduce its geoeffectiveness, however some activity
from this event seems likely. It appears solar region 9704 has
taken the hint from 9698 and is running hot this morning, producing
an X1 event at 2330UT. Strong emmission observed on Culgoora
spectrograph from 23UT, with a possible weak type II earlier
around 22 UT with a estimated shock speed of 400km/sec. This
flare may produce a stronger super-imposed proton event in a
few hours time. The X1 event is likely to be very geoeffective,
due to event magnitude, long duration, and region location (S17W37).
No timely CME imagery available to confirm. Solar activity is
expected to be moderate to high, mostly dependant on 9704.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 9684 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 23 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 3333 2223
Darwin 8 2223 2224
Learmonth 8 2322 2223
Canberra 9 2323 2223
Hobart 10 2333 2223
Casey(Ant) 15 4-43 321-
Davis(Ant) 19 3-44 3334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 NOV :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 6 1131 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 6 Quiet
24 Nov 18 active
25 Nov 80 Active levels, then Storm levels second half
of UT day.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 21 November
and is current for interval 24 November only. A weak to moderate
disturbance is initially expected on 24 Nov, then increasing
to storm levels on 25-26 Nov due to M3.8 and X1 events. The is
a chance for severe storm levels from second half of 25 Nov to
first half of 26 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : Expected to begin within hours.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Poor
24 Nov Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
25 Nov Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor
COMMENT: Low to mid latitude HF conditions expected to be good
for today. However, high latitude HF conditions expected to deteriorate
early in UT day today due to anticpated proton/PCA event from
M3 and X1 flares. Strongly degraded conditions expected 25-26
Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov 169
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-30%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20-25%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov 180 about 20% above predicted monthly values
24 Nov 150 Initially 15% enhanced then 15% depressed later
in UT day.
25 Nov 70 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on 21 November
and is current for interval 24-25 November. Degradation during
interval 24-25 Nov is now expected to be stronger due to the
recent M3 and X1 events and inferred mass ejection(s). Lower
than normal MUfs are expected on 25-26 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B8.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 57600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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