[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 184/137

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Nov             23 Nov             24 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            170/124
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was mildy southward 03-16 UT. A weak partial halo coronal 
mass ejection was observed around 14UT predominately to the south-west 
of the solar disk. A C4.7/SF flare was observed in region 9704 
in the southwest quadrant of the solar disk. If the mass ejection 
was associated with this flare, ie a front-side mass ejection, 
then a mild disturbance may begin early on 24 Nov. 
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 9684 is due for return to 
the north-east limb around 23 Nov. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1122 2212
      Darwin               3   1111 2113
      Learmonth            3   0112 1212
      Canberra             5   1122 2212
      Hobart               5   1122 2212
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-31 2223
      Davis(Ant)          10   2233 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 NOV : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   3341 1110     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Nov     5    Quiet 
23 Nov     6    Quiet 
24 Nov    18    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 21 November 
and is current for interval 24 November only. Relatively quiet 
geomagnetic conditions are expected for next two days. A weak 
to moderate disturbance is expected on 24 Nov due to possible 
front-side CME. Also, there is a weak recurrent pattern for 24 
Nov. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : Began at 1240UT 19/11, Ended at 1335UT 20/11

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected next two days. Mild degradation 
possible 24 Nov. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
21 Nov   186

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Nov   180    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
23 Nov   180    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
24 Nov   150    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on 21 November 
and is current for interval 24-25 November. Mild degradation 
possible 24-25 Nov southern Aus/NZ region due to possible front-side 
CME on 21 Nov and weak recurrent factors. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 441 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    90200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060