[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 185/138

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Nov             22 Nov             23 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            175/129            170/124
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3332 1102
      Darwin               4   2222 0001
      Learmonth            5   3222 0002
      Canberra             6   2332 0002
      Hobart               6   2332 0001
      Casey(Ant)          18   4443 22--
      Davis(Ant)          11   43-3 2112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 NOV : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart              31   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             16   3223 3344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Nov    12    Unsettled 
22 Nov     5    Quiet 
23 Nov     6    Quiet 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : Began at 1240UT 19/11, Ended at 1335UT 20/11
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Polar region HF communications improved as proton event 
ended and geomagnetic activity declined. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
20 Nov   143

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Nov   165    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
22 Nov   160    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
23 Nov   160    about 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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