[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:**YELLOW**     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/1N    0525UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 199/151

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Nov             19 Nov             20 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            190/143            185/138
COMMENT: The M2 flare was type II/IV associated, and came from 
a region in the south-east quadrant (reducing geoeffectiveness). 
Estimated weak shock arrival window 19UT/19Nov-12UT/20Nov. Effects 
expected to be reduced due to eastward location, and slow shock 
speed of event. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field has been mildly southward (5nT) over past 24 hours. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 17 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3322 4233
      Darwin               9   2222 4223
      Learmonth            7   2221 3223
      Canberra            13   2332 4233
      Hobart              12   2322 4233
      Casey(Ant)          14   4--3 3223
      Davis(Ant)          18   3--- 4333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 NOV : 
      Darwin               7   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8   2232 3311     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Nov    13    Unsettled to Active 
20 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Active period observed overnight probably in association 
with mildly southward IMF. Further active periods expected 19/20Nov 
due to weak Type II/IV event. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
20 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
17 Nov   166

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Nov   150    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
19 Nov   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
20 Nov   145    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs in the region have been elevated in comparison 
to the forecast monthly T index. MUFs this morning are expected 
to be closer to the monthly values in southern region Aus. MUfs 
are then expected to return to enhanced levels on day 2 before 
reducing to near monthly values on day 3, due to expected weak 
magnetic activity on day 2. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 375 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:    50300 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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