[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 202/153

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Nov             18 Nov             19 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            190/143            185/138
COMMENT: It appears that old solar region 9678 may be returning 
to the solar disk, with bright emission can be seen in Yohkoh 
soft xray images on the north east limb. Solar activity may 
increase in coming days. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3332 3222
      Darwin               9   2222 33--
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Canberra             8   2222 3222
      Hobart               8   2322 3212
      Casey(Ant)          13   4432 2223
      Davis(Ant)          18   444- 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 NOV : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   0001 1442     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Nov    12    Unsettled 
18 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Nov     5    Quiet 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mild degradation observed dat high latitudes past 24 
hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
16 Nov   160

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20-40% local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Nov   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
18 Nov   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
19 Nov   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 310 km/sec  Density:    9.0 p/cc  Temp:    20700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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