[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:**YELLOW**     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 188/141

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Nov             20 Nov             21 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            180/133            175/129
COMMENT: 10Mev Proton enhancement currently in progress, but 
below event flux threshold. Source is probably long duration 
M2.8 flare on 17 Nov. Region 9704 in the south-east quadrant 
of the solar disk has good flare potential. No solar region of 
significance appears to have rotated onto the north-east limb 
of the solar disk, following the previously mentioned suspected 
return of old region 9678. 
Bz again mildy southward for much of the UT day. 
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9682 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 20 Nov. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2313 3223
      Darwin               5   2212 2213
      Learmonth            6   2212 2223
      Canberra             8   1313 3212
      Hobart               9   2313 3222
      Casey(Ant)          15   -434 2223
      Davis(Ant)          19   ---4 3422
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 NOV : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   2333 4333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Nov    13    Unsettled to Active 
20 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 
21 Nov    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active periods expected 19/20Nov due to weak Type II/IV 
event. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event, however proton flux levels enhanced.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
20 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at mid-high latitudes next 
two of days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
18 Nov   157

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Nov   115    15% depressed southern region, near normal northern 
                region. 
20 Nov    95    10 to 15% below predicted monthly values 
21 Nov   120    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Some southern region sites mildly depressed after local 
dawn this morning. Further mild depressed/degradation in HF conditions 
expected local night hours/local dawn next two days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 409 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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