[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1B    0757UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 227/177

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Nov             14 Nov             15 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            235/185            235/185


ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
12/2030UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   2111 1002
      Darwin               2   2111 1002
      Learmonth            2   2012 1002
      Canberra             2   2011 1001
      Hobart               2   2111 1002
      Casey(Ant)          15   33-- ----
      Davis(Ant)          10   3332 3111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 NOV : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   2102 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Magnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation is expected to be normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
12 Nov   186

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Nov   170    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
14 Nov   170    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
15 Nov   170    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.9E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 446 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   133000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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