[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SN    0626UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 232/182

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Nov             15 Nov             16 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            220/170            220/170




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2121 0212
      Darwin               4   2121 0212
      Learmonth            3   2110 0212
      Canberra             2   2010 0211
      Hobart               3   2120 0211
      Casey(Ant)           7   --22 ----
      Davis(Ant)           9   3322 1322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 NOV : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1000 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Magnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation is expected to be normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
13 Nov   186

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Nov   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
15 Nov   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
16 Nov   154    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:   110000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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