[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1103UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 234/184

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Nov             13 Nov             14 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   235/185            235/185            230/180




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2232 1113
      Darwin               4   2122 0113
      Learmonth            5   2123 1114
      Canberra             3   1122 0112
      Hobart               4   1222 0113
      Casey(Ant)          12   3343 220-
      Davis(Ant)          10   3-3- 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 NOV : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1100 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Nov     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Magnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation is expected to be normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
11 Nov   161

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Nov   150    near predicted monthly values 
13 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.5E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 439 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    89800 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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