[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov:  Moderate

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 246/196

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Nov             12 Nov             13 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   245/195            250/200            255/205

COMMENT: Region 9690 remains capable of producing significant 
activity. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
10/1950UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3222 2123
      Darwin               3   2111 1113
      Learmonth            5   --22 1123
      Canberra             4   2111 1123
      Hobart               3   2111 1113
      Casey(Ant)          14   4--3 2234
      Davis(Ant)          12   3333 3224
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 NOV : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            42   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1000 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Nov     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Magnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : Began at 1710UT 04/11, Ended at 1815UT 09/11
 and, Began at 2145UT 09/11, Ended at 2225UT 09/11
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation is expected to be normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
10 Nov   167

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Nov   150    near predicted monthly values 
12 Nov   150    near predicted monthly values 
13 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 72 was issued on 8 November 
and is current for interval 9-11 November (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 498 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   129000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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