[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M3/1N    0856UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
 M1/SF    1841UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 271/223

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Nov             11 Nov             12 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   260/210            265/216            270/221

COMMENT: Region 9690 remains capable of producing significant 
activity. The Proton event finished. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3312 1123
      Darwin               4   2212 0123
      Learmonth            4   ---2 0122
      Canberra             3   2201 0123
      Hobart               4   2211 0123
      Casey(Ant)          15   44-3 2222
      Davis(Ant)          14   3433 2232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 NOV : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              45   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2122 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Nov    12    Unsettled 
11 Nov    12    Unsettled 
12 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Magnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 09 11 2001 2145UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation is expected to be normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
09 Nov   180

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Nov   150    near predicted monthly values 
11 Nov   150    near predicted monthly values 
12 Nov   140    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 72 was issued on 8 November 
and is current for interval 9-11 November (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.7E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 528 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    60500 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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