[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M9/1N    0704UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian
 M4/2F    1535UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 248/198

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov             10 Nov             11 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   245/195            250/200            250/200




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 08 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3323 1113
      Darwin               4   2222 0014
      Learmonth            7   -4-2 0014
      Canberra             4   2222 0013
      Hobart               5   2322 0013
      Casey(Ant)          17   44-4 2223
      Davis(Ant)          15   34-4 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 NOV : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15   5413 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 
11 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 04 11 2001 1710UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
08 Nov   163

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      PCA observed.       


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov   165    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
10 Nov   150    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Nov   150    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.6E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 621 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    72800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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