[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M5/1N    2001UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 269/220

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Nov             09 Nov             10 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            230/180            220/170


ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
07/1150UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3313 3234
      Darwin               7   3212 2224
      Learmonth            7   3212 2225
      Canberra             9   3313 2224
      Hobart              13   3423 2235
      Casey(Ant)          17   34-4 3234
      Davis(Ant)          22   44-- 4334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 NOV : 
      Darwin              16   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart             132   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        60
           Planetary            112   8875 6755     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 
09 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Nov     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Fair           Fair           Poor-fair      
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 04 11 2001 1710UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions have improved at low and middle latitudes. 
High latitude HF conditions useless due to PCA. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
07 Nov   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      No data available because of PCA.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Nov   150    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Nov   165    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
10 Nov   153    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 71 was issued on 5 November 
and is current for interval 6-8 November (SWFs) . Low and middle 
latitudes MUFs have recovered from depression. Southern Australia 
and NZ MUFs are expected to be normal today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+09
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.2E+08
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 282 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    96100 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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