[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 01

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 7 10:23:49 EST 2001


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.2    0300UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.3    0625UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.2    1352UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.1    1543UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 237/187

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Nov             08 Nov             09 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   235/185            235/185            230/180
COMMENT:Several regions capable of significant flare activity.
Proton event remains in progress, but declining. ACE detector
remain saturated.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Severe Storm Levels 

Estimated Indices 06 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      83   7765 5655
      Darwin              51   6654 4554
      Learmonth           67   7665 4555
      Canberra            77   7764 4655
      Hobart             100   7874 4655
      Casey(Ant)          85   77-6 6544
      Davis(Ant)          81   76-6 6644
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 NOV : 
      Darwin              83   (Minor storm)
      Townsville          21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth          105   (Major storm)
      Canberra           160   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             150   (Severe storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        75
           Planetary            100                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13   0012 3454     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Nov    30    Minor storm to active, declining toward end of UT day. 
08 Nov    15    Unsettled to active 
09 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 6 November 
and is current for interval 6-7 November. Severe storm levels 
followed impulse. Activity declined toward end of UT day. A general 
further declining trend in activity is expected, with isolated 
storm periods possible around local midnight tonight. 
A moderate (84nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter 
data at 0151UT on 06 Nov. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Fair           Poor-fair      Very Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 04 11 2001 1710UT and 
	    is in progress(declining).

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Fair           Fair           Poor-Fair(PCA)
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions strongly degraded due to severe geomagnetic 
storm. High latitude HF conditions useless due to PCA and severe 
geomagnetic storm conditions. Proton flux declining and high 
latitude HF conditions are expected to improve toward end of 
UT day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
06 Nov    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Northern Aus. Region:
      Depressed 30-40% 02-06UT.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Recovering after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 30-40% 02-06UT.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Nov   120    Enhanced 15% northern Aus region. 
                Depressed 15-30% southern region. 
08 Nov   140    Near predicted to 15% above monthly values 
09 Nov   165    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 71 was issued on 5 November 
and is current for interval 6-8 November (SWFs) . Highly variable 
MUFs and layer heights observed over past 24 hours in the Aus/NZ 
region. Most sites 30-40% depressed 02-06UT. Some sites then 
returned to near normal. Other sites depressed 40-50%, particularly 
southern region. Variable conditions expected again today with
southern region Aus/NZ MUFs expected to be around 20% depressed 
today, and Northern region MUFs are expected to be mostly near 
to 15% above normal today. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.3E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.3E+08
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+04 (normal)
       X-ray background: C3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 314 km/sec  Density:   43.0 p/cc  Temp:   106000 K  Bz:   7 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list