[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 216/166

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Nov             05 Nov             06 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate           Moderate 
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            210/161            215/165
COMMENT: Solar regions of interest appear to have quietened over 
past 24 hours. M class flares are still possible, with an outside 
chance of X class activity. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic 
ion enhancement event beginning 03/1920UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   2100 0002
      Darwin               2   2200 0012
      Learmonth            1   2100 0001
      Canberra             0   1100 0002
      Hobart               0   1100 0001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 NOV : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1110 3222     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 
05 Nov    18    active 
06 Nov    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 42 was issued on 2 November 
and is current for interval 4-5 November. A weak shock arrival 
is expected late 04 Nov to early 05 Nov due to reported slow 
mass ejection. Mild recurrent activity also possible 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be initially normal. Mild 
degradation in conditions expected from late 04 Nov at mid to 
high latitides during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
03 Nov   183

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Nov   165    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
05 Nov   120    Enhanced 15% northern region/depressed 15% southern 
                region 
06 Nov   145    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs expected today. IPS HF Communications Warning 
68 was issued on 2 November and is current for interval 4-5 November. 
Mild depressions may be experienced briefly after local dawn 
southern Aus/NZ region on 05 Nov. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C7.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:    40300 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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