[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.1    1620UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 227/177

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Nov             06 Nov             07 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            215/165            210/161
COMMENT: Solar region 9684 rapidly grew overnight and is now 
magnetically complex. It unexpectedly produced an X1/3B flare 
at 1620UT. The flare was accompanied by type II and IV radio 
sweep events (inferred coronal mass ejection). A strong proton 
event began at 1710UT following he flare. Event data suggests 
shock arrival window 11-20UT on 06 Nov. Further M class flare 
activity is expected. Further X class activity may occur if region 
9684 continues to grow and retains its magnetic complexity. Solar 
regions 9682 and 9687 remain flare capable but quiet. A weak 
shock from an earlier slow mass ejection has yet to appear. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2222 2212
      Darwin               5   2212 2213
      Learmonth            5   2112 2211
      Canberra             5   1222 2211
      Hobart               5   1122 2211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 NOV : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   0000 1221     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Nov    18    active 
06 Nov    65    Storm levels 
07 Nov    55    Storm levels 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 4 November 
and is current for interval 6-7 November. A weak impulse is still 
possible on 05 Nov. However, a much stronger impulse is now expected 
on 06 Nov due the X1 event. Storm activity is expected from mid 
06 Nov. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 04 11 2001 1710UT and is 
	    in progress.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Poor(PCA)
06 Nov      Normal-Poor    Fair-Poor      Poor
07 Nov      Poor-Fair      Poor           Poor
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions beacame very poor after 
17UT due to proton event. Poor conditions expected for today. 
Conditions at high latitudes are expected to remain poor as geomagnetic 
storm activity is expected to commence mid 06 Nov. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
04 Nov   189

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Complete absorption observed from 18UT.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Nov   165    Initially 15-20% enhanced, chance for mild depression 
                late in UT day for southern region Aus/NZ only. 
06 Nov   100    Initially midly depressed (southern region) to 
                15% enhanced (northern region), strong depression 
                expected second half of UT day. 
07 Nov    80    30 to 50% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Strongly depressed and degraded HF conditions are now 
expected from mid 06 Nov for all sites due to overnight X1 
flare/CME. A milder degradation for southern region Aus only may 
occur before this event due to an earlier much weaker/slower CME event. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 326 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    58100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060