[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F 01/2352UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
 M1/SF    0809UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 214/165

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Nov             04 Nov             05 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            215/165            220/170
COMMENT: Solar radio noise storm has eased. The M1 event at 23UT 
on 01 Nov originated from solar region 9682 and was associated 
with a partial halo mass ejection. The ejection was quite slow 
with a reported speed of around 340km/sec and biased to the west. 
Weak shock arrival window is estimated as 20UT/04Nov to 15UT/05Nov. 
Solar wind speed showed an gradually increasing trend over past 
24 hours, possibly due to a weak recurrent (coronal hole) signature 
expected around this time. M and X class flares remain expected. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2231 3113
      Darwin               6   2231 2114
      Learmonth            8   2331 3013
      Canberra             8   2231 3213
      Hobart               8   2231 3213
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 NOV : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             25   4454 5432     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Nov     5    Quiet 
04 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 
05 Nov    18    active 
COMMENT: A weak shock arrival is expected late 04 Nov to early 
05 Nov due to reported slow mass ejection. Mild recurrent activity 
also possible 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be initially normal. Mild 
degradation in conditions expected from late 04 Nov at mid to 
high latitides during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
02 Nov   150

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Nov   150    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
04 Nov   150    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
05 Nov   120    Enhanced 15% northern region/depressed 15% southern 
                region 
COMMENT: Mild depressions may be experienced briefly after local 
dawn southern Aus/NZ region on 05 Nov. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 340 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    36800 K  Bz:  -9 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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