[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    0654UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M3.1    1222UT  possible   lower  European
  M2.0    1518UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.7    1959UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.1    2311UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 236/186

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Nov             03 Nov             04 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   225/175            225/175            230/180
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) was southward 10nT for most of the UT day. Solar wind 
speed declined from 380 to 320km/sec. A solar radio noise storm 
which began around 0530UT on 01 Nov is intensifying this morning. 
The noise storm may be associated with the arrival of a new solar 
region, SEC number 9687, which rotated around the south-east 
limb of the Sun overnight. This region produced three of the 
days xray events, two of which were long duration xray events, 
an M3 flare from 1125-1308UT, and an M1 flare from 1351-1537UT. 
Region 9682, the largest region on disk, remains ominous with 
continued growth, but has yet to produce major activity. In general 
however, solar activity seems to have stepped up with the arrival 
of this new region, increasing the likelyhood of a major solar 
flare. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 01 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   3323 4322
      Darwin              10   3223 3223
      Learmonth            9   3223 3212
      Canberra            14   3323 4322
      Hobart              16   3334 4311
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 NOV : 
      Darwin               5   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   1120 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Nov     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Nov     5    Quiet 
04 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Isolated active period observed overnight following 
yesterdays impulse. Mild recurrent pattern on day 3 of forecast. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected today. Brief period 
of degraded conditions may be experienced after local dawn, following 
mild geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
01 Nov   157

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some spread F observed. 

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 104

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Nov   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
03 Nov   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
04 Nov   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on 30 October 
and is current for interval 31 October to 2 November (SWFs) . 
Mild depressions may be experienced briefly after local dawn 
southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    20800 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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