[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.4    0810UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.5    1052UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.0    2144UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 221/171

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Nov             02 Nov             03 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   210/161            200/152            195/147
COMMENT:A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1252UT on 
31 Oct. Solar wind shock possibly from M3 flare with Type II 
radio sweep at 1113UT on 29 Oct. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was southward 15nT post 
shock. However, solar wind speed is only mildly elevated at just 
under 400km/sec. Solar region 9682 is now located near the centre 
of the solar disk (good geoeffective position) and continues 
to grow (now over 1100 millionths of a solar hemisphere), and 
remains magnetically complex. If this region produces a large 
solar flare over the next few days it would probably be very 
geoffective. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 31 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2111 3334
      Darwin              10   2-21 3335
      Learmonth            9   1110 4333
      Canberra             7   1001 3333
      Hobart               8   3111 3233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 OCT : 
      Darwin               7   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2332 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Nov    18    active 
02 Nov    12    Unsettled 
03 Nov     5    Quiet 
COMMENT:A weak (17nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 1349UT on 31 Oct. Active periods expected today following impulse. 
There is a chance for isolated minor storm periods around local midnight 
if Bz remains southward. Geomagnetic effects reduced due to low 
jump in solar wind speed. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-fair     
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Degraded conditions cexpected to be confined to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
31 Oct   186

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Some spred F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Nov   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
02 Nov   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
03 Nov   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 66 was issued on 30 October 
and is current for interval 31 October to 2 November (SWFs) . 
Mild degradation in HF conditions possible local night hours 
southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 369 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:  -100000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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