[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 139/93

GOES satellite data for 28 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.9E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 May             31 May             01 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: One solar region in the northeast quadrant of the sun 
show growth and is becomiong more magnetically complex. Isolated 
M class flares possible. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 29 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3211 2222
      Darwin               7   3-21 2213
      Townsville           4   -210 12--
      Learmonth            9   3222 3222
      Canberra             6   3211 2212
      Hobart               5   2211 222-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 MAY : 
      Darwin              68   (Active)
      Townsville          66   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             18   2324 4434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 May     7    Quiet 
31 May     9    Quiet 
01 Jun     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: 27 day patterns suggests quiet geomagnetic conditions 
over next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
29 May   139

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 May   120    Near predicted monthly values 
31 May   120    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Jun   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060