[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:**YELLOW**     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 143/97

GOES satellite data for 27 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 May             30 May             31 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
(IMF) field eventually became southward (-10nT) after 0700UT, 
following yesterdays shock. Solar wind speed declined from 600 
to 450 km/sec over UT day. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic 
ion enhancement event beginning 28/1700UT, which can be a 
precursor to mild increased geomagnetic activity over next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2223 3322
      Darwin              13   --23 3333
      Townsville           5   2211 2221
      Learmonth           11   2223 3333
      Canberra            11   3223 3323
      Hobart              12   2223 4322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 MAY : 
      Darwin              54   (Unsettled)
      Townsville          64   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   1002 3433     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 May    12    Unsettled, isolated active periods.
30 May     7    Quiet 
31 May     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active periods may be experienced today, with southward IMF,
particularly during local night hours. 27 day patterns suggests quiet 
geomagnetic conditions over days 2 and 3. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair   
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT:Mildly degraded conditions expected local night hours
today, mid to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
28 May   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 May   110    Near predicted monthly values 
30 May   110    Near predicted monthly values 
31 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMNET: Mild degradation in HF comms quality expected
local night southern region AUs/NZ only 29 May.

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