[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 28 09:16:10 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 147/101
GOES satellite data for 26 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 May 29 May 30 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1417UT
with solar wind speed increasing from 440 to 525 km/sec pre/post
shock. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event
beginning 27/1400UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24 hours. However, the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic (IMF) field remained mostly northward post
shock, reducing effectiveness.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 May : A K
Australian Region 5 1001 2322
Darwin 5 1111 2322
Townsville 2 0000 1221
Learmonth 9 2111 3422
Canberra 4 0000 2322
Hobart 4 0001 2311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 MAY :
Darwin 18 (Quiet)
Townsville 64 (Active)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2222 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 May 16 Unsettled to active
29 May 6 Quiet to Unsettled
30 May 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 24 May and
is current for interval 27-28 May. Sudden impulse of 15nT observed
at 1459UT on 27 May. Very mild increase in geomagnetic observed,
probably due to northward IMF.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
29 May Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
30 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degradation in HF comms quality expected at mid to high
latitudes 28 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 May 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Spread F observed local night hours.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F and absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 May 100 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 May 110 Near predicted monthly values
30 May 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 24 May
and is current for interval 27-28 May. Lower than normal MUFs
possible after local dawn this morning, southern region only.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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