[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 138/92

GOES satellite data for 17 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B5.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 May             20 May             21 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             130/84

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2212 1112
      Darwin               5   2222 2112
      Townsville           2   2200 0112
      Learmonth            8   2223 2222
      Canberra             3   2212 1002
      Hobart               4   2212 1011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 MAY : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville          60   (Unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   2313 2323     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
20 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
21 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
18 May   104

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 May   105    Near predicted monthly values 
20 May   100    Near predicted monthly values 
21 May   110    Near predicted monthly values 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060