[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 141/95

GOES satellite data for 18 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 May             21 May             22 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             130/84

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   3321 1011
      Darwin               7   3321 1021
      Townsville           2   2210 0011
      Learmonth           10   4232 2121
      Canberra             5   3310 1011
      Hobart               5   3310 1011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 MAY : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          64   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   3322 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 May     7    Quiet 
21 May     7    Quiet 
22 May     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
19 May   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
21 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
22 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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