[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F    1652UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 147/101

GOES satellite data for 16 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 May             19 May             20 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            160/114

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1212 0112
      Darwin               4   2211 1112
      Townsville           3   1121 0112
      Learmonth            5   2222 1212
      Canberra             3   1212 0101
      Hobart               3   1212 0112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 MAY : 
      Darwin              20   (Quiet)
      Townsville          64   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            54   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              56   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12   3333 2322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
19 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
20 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
17 May    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 May   100    Near predicted monthly values 
19 May   105    Near predicted monthly values 
20 May   100    Near predicted monthly values 


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